វិបត្តិអាកាសធាតុ“ កូដក្រហម”៖ មេដឹកនាំត្រូវតែភ្ញាក់ពីការគំរាមកំហែងពិតប្រាកដចំពោះសន្តិសុខសមុទ្រ

- Geopolitics and geoeconomics have dominated the discourse on maritime security for 500 years. But the latest UN report on global warming and irreversible ocean damage shows where true priorities lie

Global warming, the world’s most serious existential challenge, is poised to morph into an irreversible threat to Planet Earth’s diverse life forms. Yet humans, ostensibly the most evolved type of mammal, seem oblivious to this.

This is the stark summary of the sixth assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last Monday, a large and detailed report of 13 chapters totalling almost 4,000 pages, distilled from 14,000 scientific studies and papers.

Justifying the “code red” warning by the United Nations is this bleak conclusion: “Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered.”

Hence, global warming of “1.5 degrees and 2 degrees Celsius will be exceeded during the 21st century”. The slender caveat is that this exigency will unfold “unless deep reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades”.

The rise in global surface temperature is a slow development and has been aggravated by human activity that includes the burning of fossil fuels and other forms of greenhouse gas emissions.

To place this increase in context, global average temperatures have risen by 1.1 degrees since the pre-industrial age (1850-1900) and this occurred over a century. Now, the temperature rise could reach or exceed 1.5 degrees over the next 20 years.

The consequences for human security will be dire, from Asia and Africa to Europe and America. Indeed, we have been experiencing unprecedented floods and droughts over the past year or so.

The IPCC report warns that there will be “increases in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes, marine heatwaves, and heavy precipitation, agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions, and proportion of intense tropical cyclones, as well as reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost”.

And with increased emissions, “ocean and land carbon sinks are projected to be less effective at slowing the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere”.

The most alarming development yet to register on the global radar is that certain maritime changes are now irreversible. The report’s section on oceans notes: “Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level.”

A previous IPCC assessment concluded it was “virtually certain” that oceans had warmed unabated since 1970, absorbing more than 90 per cent of the excess heat in the climate system and that “since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled”.

Consequently, by absorbing more CO2, the ocean has undergone increasing surface acidification and a loss of oxygen, to a depth of 1,000m. The impact of increased acidification, higher salinity and lower levels of oxygen on the complex and delicate web of marine life is only now being fully acknowledged, and the tragedy is that much of the damage cannot be undone.

Other forms of pollution have altered the marine food chain in an unprecedented manner, the most vivid illustration being the increasing incidence of microplastics found in seafood.

Coincidentally, on the same day that the IPCC’s assessment report was released, maritime security was being deliberated at the UN Security Council, chaired by India under the monthly rotation.

In a departure from usual practice, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the council in the virtual meeting, which was attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and with ministerial representation from France and Britain. China, in contrast, was represented by a junior diplomat and the political signalling was clear.

In recent years, the global discourse on maritime security has been dominated by geopolitics and, predictably, the subtext alludes to disputed South China Sea claims and the discord it has generated.

Beijing has rejected a landmark ruling by an international tribunal in The Hague that found its sweeping claims had no legal basis, and has its own interpretation of its claims.

The final statement from the August 9 UN meeting was contested by China and, ultimately, the agreed formulation by the Security Council “reaffirmed” international law as reflected in the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to be the applicable legal framework for managing maritime security.

While geopolitics and geoeconomics have been the primary determinants of maritime engagement and contests among major powers for the past 500 years, the IPCC reports point to the urgent need to bring to the fore geophysical elements – that is, the health of the oceans – and the relevance of human security.

An onerous responsibility rests on the shoulders of those nations that are the world’s top carbon dioxide emitters and have the largest carbon footprints. These include China (with 9.3 gigatonnes of emissions in 2017), the US (4.8 gigatonnes), India (2.2 gigatonnes), Russia (1.5 gigatonnes) and Japan (1.1 gigatonnes). All other countries’ emissions fall below the 1 gigatonne ceiling.

Over the past decade, climate negotiations have become protracted and inequitable. Mitigation strategies have been bitterly opposed by some leaders (recall then-US president Donald Trump pulling America out of the Paris climate accord).

There is also little to suggest that the urgency of global warming and climate change has been appropriately hoisted on the global mast.

Just as piracy challenges in 2009 enabled a limited but successful degree of global maritime and naval cooperation, one can only hope that the latest IPCC report will catalyse the major powers into action.

They need to pull together to reduce the probability of the worst-case scenarios and hew to the course of enlightened self-interest, one that respects the primordial rhythms of nature. The alternative is frightening.

SCMP