តើតៃវ៉ាន់អាចរៀនអ្វីខ្លះពីការដកទ័ពអាមេរិកចេញពីអាហ្វហ្គានីស្ថាន?

- The circumstances may differ, but some observers say that Washington will ultimately look after its own interest

- Within weeks of American troops ending their mission in Afghanistan, the country has fallen to the Taliban

A US soldier points his gun towards an Afghan passenger at Kabul’s airport on Monday as thousands try to flee the Taliban’s feared hardline Islamist rule. Photo: AFP

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has raised concerns in Taiwan that Washington may one day abandon the self-ruled island in its defence against Beijing’s threats, potentially resulting in parallels with the Kabul regime and the Saigon government in 1975.

Observers said that although the United States pulling its troops out of Afghanistan and Vietnam should not be compared to its security commitment to Taiwan, the island’s government may need to think more deeply about whether to put its eggs in the US basket and continue its China-bashing policy.

US President Joe Biden pledged less than three weeks ago that the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan would never play out like events in the capital of US-backed South Vietnam 46 years ago, and that it was unlikely the Taliban would completely overrun the country.

But on Sunday, the world witnessed a hurried US evacuation of its personnel and desperate Afghans trying to flee Kabul, with some even seen clinging to a US plane taking off from the airport as the Taliban entered the capital city.

There were echoes of the 1975 fall of Saigon following the Vietnam war, and it raised concerns in Taipei over how much trust the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government should place in Washington’s security commitment to Taiwan. Beijing claims sovereignty over Taiwan and has vowed to bring it under its control by force if necessary.

There was no immediate comment by President Tsai Ing-wen, but Premier Su Tseng-chang said on Tuesday that the island would not surrender like Afghanistan’s government did in the event of an attack.

“We were not afraid to be killed when Taiwan was under Kuomintang [Nationalist Party] rule and martial law in 1949,” he said, adding that if a “superpower” wanted to swallow up the island, “we are not afraid to be killed and arrested and will do all we can to defend” Taiwan.

Observers said it was inappropriate to compare Taiwan to Afghanistan, because the situations in the two places were entirely different.

“Geographically, there is the Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and mainland China, and if there is a war, it will first occur over the sea and in the air,” said Lin Yu-fang, head of security studies at the National Policy Foundation, a KMT think tank.

“Besides, our anti-landing capability is rather strong, and most important of all, the willpower of our military is much stronger than that of Afghanistan when it comes to our defence.”

Lin said that what people in Taiwan should bear in mind is that the US will act primarily in what it sees as its own national interests, as was the case in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

“It is also the case in Taiwan, as was proved by its severance of official ties with us in 1979 but returning to ally with us today, because it was in line with the interests of those US administrations,” Lin said.

Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University, said that although there was a strong need to seek support from the US, it was risky for the DPP government to rest all its hopes on the US to help defend Taiwan in the event of a mainland Chinese attack, given that Washington’s priority would always be its national interest.

“As peace is the key to our development, it is important for us to prevent Taiwan from becoming the target of a Chinese attack,” Huang said.

He added that the DPP government should seek to improve ties with the mainland rather than following a policy towards Beijing that aligns with the US’ national interest.

SCMP