អ្នកជំនាញចិនព្រមានថាទីក្រុងប៉េកាំងមិនទាន់អាចជឿជាក់លើការសន្យាភេរវកម្មរបស់តាលីបង់នៅឡើយ

- Doubts over Taliban’s ability to cut ties with forces requested by China, because it has fought alongside them, experts say

- China does not yet recognise Taliban government, but building relations after the group took power in Afghanistan may aid counterterrorism efforts

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (centre) welcomes a Taliban delegation in Tianjin last month. Photo: Twitter

In the weeks before the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, Beijing made efforts to strengthen its ties with the militant group by receiving a delegation and referring to it as an important political and military force.

But in talks with the Taliban’s chief negotiator Mullah Abdul Ghani, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also demanded the group cut ties with other extremist forces including the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which China says caused violent attacks in its highly sensitive western region of Xinjiang. The group promised Afghan soil would not be used to plot against China.

As the Taliban took control of Kabul on Sunday, Beijing urged it to implement moderate religious policies and maintain friendly relations with other nations.

Diplomatic observers said that although Beijing was still far from recognising the group as the legitimate government, it considered closer relations with the Taliban to be crucial for its counterterrorism efforts in the region.

The Taliban’s bloody advance in Afghanistan raised fears for Beijing that the turmoil could spill across the border into Xinjiang. Beijing remains sceptical as to whether the Taliban will keep its promise to cut ties with terrorist groups.

Even if the Taliban believes its legitimacy has been boosted by the meeting with China, analysts said it would face a challenge in acceding to requests to clamp down on the ETIM.

Yang Shu, former dean of central Asia studies at Lanzhou University, said groups such as al-Qaeda, Islamic State and ETIM were still active in Afghanistan.

“It is not the first time the Taliban has made such a promise – it assured the US last year it would cut ties with all terrorist groups, but didn’t keep its word,” Yang said.

Last year, the Taliban agreed a deal with the US in which the group pledged to cut ties with all terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, and prevent threats to American security interests on Afghan soil.

But Edmund Fitton-Brown, coordinator of a UN panel responsible for tracking the Taliban and terrorist groups in Afghanistan, said in February that the Afghan Taliban – despite having pledged to stop cooperating with terrorists – had maintained a close relationship with al-Qaeda, permitting it to conduct training in Afghanistan and deploy fighters alongside Taliban forces.

“As a result, I don’t think the Taliban will keep its promise with China,” Yang said. “It might do something to appease China by not being so closely aligned with these terrorist groups, but I don’t think the Taliban will fully implement its promises. It would lose its legitimacy and appeal to cut ties with those it fought with.”

Yang said the Taliban could expel some ETIM members from Afghanistan, but cutting ties with such groups would be difficult and they may seek revenge.

Communication between China and the Taliban has been going on for years, even if sometimes in low-profile ways, diplomatic observers said. Pan Guang, a central Asia expert at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, was quoted by news website guancha.cn as saying that Beijing had contact with the Taliban even before the September 11 attacks in 2001, meeting then Taliban leader Mohammed Omar in Afghanistan.

That communication was suspended after September 11, but resumed in recent years, with a Taliban delegation visiting Urumqi and Beijing, and the Chinese embassy in Qatar having contact with the Taliban office there, Pan said.

Hosting a Taliban delegation last month as the United States was withdrawing troops from Afghanistan could help create the conditions for China to play a role in rebuilding the South Asian country, Pan said.

Since Sunday, the Taliban has insisted that its return to power will be different from its fundamentalist reign more than two decades ago. Zabihullah Mujahid, the armed group’s spokesman, said on Tuesday that the rights of women would be protected, and that the group wanted peaceful relations with other nations.

“I would like to assure the international community, including the United States, that nobody will be harmed,” Mujahid said. “We don’t want any internal or external enemies.”

Zhang Jiadong, director of the Institute of South Asia Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said it was still hard to predict how the Taliban would rule.

“It doesn’t look like a civil war is likely, at least,” Zhang said. “However, we’re still a long way from seeing what kind of ruling power [the Taliban] would turn into.

“They needed to make these promises to be recognised by the world and ensure a smooth transition. They are sending out optimistic messages, but these are just empty promises and China should take them with a pinch of salt, or it will make us look really naive.”

Li Shaoxian, director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, said the immediate future for Afghanistan remained concerning.

“The Taliban faces very serious challenges,” Li said. “We hope that Afghanistan internally can have an inclusive reconciliation in the interests of its stable development. At the same time, we are very concerned it will become an arena for terrorists and religious extremism.”

SCMP